The outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) is possibly the greatest global health emergency in human history. With over half a million people infected by the disease, and tens of thousands dead, the virus continues to infiltrate cities and continents. As entire countries are forced into stringent lockdowns, the virus is taking a severe toll on economies, with businesses being shut down and people’s movement severely curtailed. While the crisis continues to deepen, we take a closer look at the nature of the global recession triggered by coronavirus.
The recession is here
Although there are predictions of a prolonged or deep recession in the coming months, many countries around the world are already beginning to feel the impact of the economic fallout. Industries such as air travel, hospitality, retail, and auto manufacturing are among those hit hardest by coronavirus. Stock markets have sustained huge losses while oil prices have plummeted in recent weeks. Unemployment is fast rising, and governments’ spending is being diverted from various sectors of the economy to cater to the health emergency.
Recession could prove worse than 2008 crisis
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the recession triggered by the coronavirus could actually be worse than the one caused by the 2008 financial crisis. She has urged countries to respond with “very massive” spending to avoid large-scale bankruptcies and debt defaults. More than 80 countries have already requested IMF help to counter their growing economic woes.
Negative growth projected for 2020
The US-based credit rating agency, Moody’s, has projected the world economy to shrink by 0.5 percent in 2020. A negative growth will effectively wipe off well over $1 trillion from the value of the world economy. Previously, the agency had predicted the 2020 growth at 2.6 percent, but growth projections for the coming periods are constantly being revised down as the virus takes its real toll. During the last 50 years, global economic growth has only once been recorded as negative, which was -1.68 percent during 2009.
No easy cure
There is no easy way to counter this recession for two reasons. First, the lockdowns imposed by many countries leave little room for efforts to revive the economy yet. Second, the recession is global in nature, affecting nearly all countries of the world, and causing businesses across the globe to be adversely impacted. “There is no global treasury to stimulate demand, pump cash into circulation, subsidize employment and maintain investment,” writes Simon Jenkins, a Guardian columnist. The fact that social distancing is the only known strategy to curtail the spread of the virus certainly does not help the economy.
Recovery by 2021?
IMF believes a global recovery is expected in 2021 subject to the containment of the virus and strengthening of health systems around the world. Despite a possible recovery, however, countries are expected to continue suffering the effects of the economic fallout for years to come, according to Angel Gurria, the secretary general of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the coming weeks and months, three important metrics shall determine the actual extent and impact of the recession: GDP, unemployment, and stock markets. The key to economic recovery lies in the containment of coronavirus: the sooner it is controlled globally, the faster the recovery is likely to be.